#美联储利率政策 Non-farm payrolls report will be released next Tuesday, but Citigroup's forecast makes me a bit nervous — a decrease of 45,000 jobs in October, followed by a rebound of 80,000 in November. This "V-shaped" trend looks hard to believe. Economists themselves have said that this might be more of a seasonal adjustment trick; the actual labor demand isn't as optimistic as it appears.

The unemployment rate is even more interesting. Citigroup predicts 4.52%, while the Federal Reserve's own quarterly forecast is 4.5%. Both sides are moving upward. This is the root of the Fed's internal disagreement — is it inflation or employment that is more urgent? The answer remains ambiguous.

From a follow-trade perspective, this report is a high-risk emotional divergence point. If the data truly signals conflicting signals, short-term traders may face rapid shifts in direction. My current follow-trade strategy is this: for aggressive traders, I will reduce the follow ratio and wait until the data actually materializes before reacting; for conservative traders, they can maintain their usual positions, as they are better at seizing structural opportunities under such high uncertainty.

The key is not to be scared by temporary market fluctuations. The data itself isn't scary; what's scary is having no contingency plan.