2025-12-29 09:27:49

A piece of data surprised me.

The latest statistics show that over 7 million Bitcoins are currently in a loss, accounting for 33% of the total circulating supply. In other words—out of every 3 Bitcoins, 1 is trapped in a loss. This ratio has hit a new high in the current cycle.

At first glance, this data might seem alarming, but what does it really mean? There are two very different opinions in the market.

**One perspective sees this as**

The ultimate signal of market fear. Historical experience shows—whenever losses reach extreme levels, it often signals that market sentiment has bottomed out. In other words, those who should have sold have sold, and those who need to sell have already done so. From this angle, the true bottom is just around the corner. This is a classic opportunity to be "greedy when others are fearful."

**The other camp is much more cautious**

They see lurking risks. Those 7 million coins are like a sword hanging overhead. Once the price rebounds to near the cost basis of those trapped, it’s highly likely to trigger a wave of concentrated selling—people rushing to cut losses. This will form a heavy wall of selling pressure, enough to crush the rebound. According to this logic, to break out of a real bull market, we first need to swallow this heavy pressure of distressed positions.

**My view**

The data itself is cold, but market sentiment is boiling hot. These 7 million loss-making Bitcoins clearly reflect the current state of the market—deep pain mixed with divergence.

From here, the next market script probably looks like this: any upward movement will not be smooth. Every rally will face targeted sell-offs, repeatedly, full of uncertainty. To break out of a trendful upward phase, either we wait long enough for this pressure to naturally dissipate, or we need an external shock—new storylines, massive capital inflows, something to break the deadlock.

The current game rule is: being smarter than everyone else doesn’t cut it; being more patient does. The market is using losses to teach every participant.

BTC1,8%

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BoredStaker

· 01-01 09:20

Honestly, the 33% figure is really shocking... But on the other hand, maybe it's a signal to buy the dip? History always repeats itself. --- The wall of the short squeeze is really frustrating; every rebound gets snipered, and then the next rebound gets snipered again. It’s quite exhausting to keep going like this. --- Wait, 7 million coins... Those guys who are trapped must be feeling really崩溃 right now. --- The problem is, no one knows whether this is the bottom or if we’re just digging a bigger hole. That’s the most frustrating part. --- Patience is really needed, it’s critical. Anyway, I can’t hold on; I keep wanting to make some moves. --- It looks like a rebound will be difficult in the short term, so we’ll have to endure. --- Another round of teaching sessions; the crypto world seems to rely on this kind of education. --- I’ve experienced the sell pressure wall before; in the end, it can be broken through. The key is when external stimuli come. --- If these data are really so absolute, it feels a bit too coincidental. Could someone be hyping things up? --- No worries, keep stacking. In the long run, it’s all good.

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fomo_fighter

· 2025-12-30 23:52

7 million trapped coins, it feels like a time bomb... Basically, it's just a matter of who can hold on, I'm not in a hurry anyway... I've heard a lot about bottom signals, but the real test is still to come... Sniping the short-squeeze positions sounds uncomfortable, this rebound might just get slapped again... Patience is sometimes more important than technical analysis... If all 7 million coins are dumped, how do we play it? History tells us that extreme data often marks a turning point, but is this time really different... With such heavy pressure from the chips, why believe we can break through... Waiting for news and external shocks? It feels like gambling on a new storyline... The market is really educating participants, but the cost is a bit too high...

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BoredWatcher

· 2025-12-29 14:14

Damn, 33%... It might take until the Year of the Monkey to get out of this. --- Every rebound gets sniped, this feeling really sucks. That's exactly how I feel right now. --- Basically, just wait. Anyway, panicking won't help; the market teaches the harshest lessons. --- 7 million swords? Looks like this wave will last a few more months... --- When others are greedy, I am greedy too. As a result, I'm now stuck in this 33%, haha. --- It sounds hopeless, but isn't this the best opportunity to buy the dip? The key is who can hold on. --- The pressure on chips is so heavy, imagining a bull market is really hard. --- Patience... sounds easy, but who can stay patient when the account shrinks by 50%? --- If this data is real, then the power of the short squeeze is indeed formidable.

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FlashLoanLord

· 2025-12-29 09:57

Whoa, 33%？This wave is really crazy... We're just simmering the soup here. Waiting again? Fine, anyway the coins can't run away, let's see who can hold on longer. Every rebound gets cut, I'm the one getting cut. Bottom in sight? Haha, I hear that every year, I don't believe you. 700 million tokens pressed down, is this what they call an "opportunity"? I think it's a "trap." Patience... it's easy to say, but my wallet is screaming. How much longer do I have to endure this round? Damn. When they keep cutting my greens, remember to be gentle. I really don't know whether to be scared or greedy, my brain just can't keep up. Why is the wall of stop-loss orders so thick?

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GasSavingMaster

· 2025-12-29 09:42

Who is this still talking about the old "bottom signal"... 7 million coins being trapped is basically a time bomb, do we have to wait for it to explode to consider it over? --- Basically, it's just retail investors' blood and sweat ledger. The scarier the data looks, the more dangerous it actually is. --- It's just a gamble on who admits defeat first. When the short-term recovery appears, the price is immediately hammered back to the ground. --- Patience is easy to talk about, but when your account is shrinking day by day, who can stay calm? --- It feels like we're just waiting now, hoping a big whale will come to rescue the market or continue to sink, there’s no third way. --- The crypto world is always repeating the same story, just with different protagonists. --- The real test is coming—are those still bottom-fishing really experts or just gamblers? --- That's why I don't chase highs or bottom-fish. Looking at this situation, it's a bit exhausting.

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GamefiEscapeArtist

· 2025-12-29 09:29

Really, 33% is a bit outrageous... Feels like it's about to verify the "fear of others" theory? ---- The trapped positions are definitely a trap; whenever there's a rebound, they get targeted, cycle... That's the current situation. ---- Wait, with so many coins trapped, how much could they drop if everything crashes? ---- Patience... I've heard this so many times, and every time I die from impatience haha. ---- 7 million coins are hanging at the top; it feels like the bottom hasn't been reached yet. Anyway, I'll just keep lying flat.

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OnchainHolmes

· 2025-12-29 09:28

The wall of the short squeeze... You really have to be patient and endure it. I'm used to being sniped down again and again. Basically, it's a gamble on who can hold on longer. Without a new storyline coming in, there's no way to make any tricks. This data is actually asking—are you trying to bottom out or just want to survive and withdraw? My goodness, 33% ratio... just looking at it makes me anxious. Bottom? Ha, first understand the pressure of these 7 million coins, then talk. It's not that simple. Instead of guessing the bottom, it's better to learn to wait. Truly.

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