A leading asset management firm’s investment chief Matt Hougan recently shared his views, believing that the performance trajectory of Bitcoin over the next decade will differ from the early days of rapid doubling and wild swings. In the new cycle, Bitcoin is more likely to exhibit a "long-term steady rise" pattern.

His logic is clear: as market participants become more professional and institutional funds gradually become mainstream, the nature of the entire market is changing. The era of sudden surges and crashes is coming to an end, replaced by a low-volatility, more predictable growth model — in his words, "high-quality returns, but not dramatic."

Looking at the price trend, Bitcoin reached a historical high of $125,100 in October last year, then retraced to around $87,800, with nearly a 4% decline over the past 30 days. This drop may seem significant, but Matt Hougan believes there’s no need for excessive pessimism. He points out that this correction mainly results from retail investors taking profits following a four-year cycle pattern, rather than fundamental issues. Compared to historical declines of over 60%, the current adjustment is quite restrained, which actually indicates that institutional long-term capital continues to flow in, providing a bottom support for the market. Based on this judgment, he remains bullish through 2026.

However, internal market disagreements are indeed widening. Some analysts are focusing on the timing structure of the October high, noting that this level resembles the cyclical features of previous market tops, leading to the inference that Bitcoin might weaken in 2026. Some veteran traders even estimate that Bitcoin could bottom out around $60,000 in Q3 2026.

From a broader macro perspective, the crypto market is undergoing a transformation. The era once dominated by retail investors and short-term speculation, characterized by frequent high volatility, is being replaced by a rationalized long-cycle competition driven by institutional funds. This shift has not only reduced volatility but also changed how investors manage expectations.

Currently, at the beginning of January, market enthusiasm varies. But regardless of short-term fluctuations, for long-term participants, sufficient understanding and confidence are often more important than chasing every rise and fall. The degree of institutional involvement in this cycle is unprecedented, and the market structure is being redefined.