#稳定币发展与监管 Reflecting on the twelve-year regulatory cycle, the pattern is actually quite clear: policies tend to be enforced when market enthusiasm peaks, and after each round of intervention, the market typically clears and restarts within 6-12 months.

This time, the mention of stablecoins and RWA indicates what? It suggests that the hype around these two sectors has reached a stage where cooling down is necessary. But the key point is— the current market structure is completely different. The policies in 2013 and 2017 could directly end the bull market cycle because mainland capital dominated. Now, on the other hand, Wall Street ETFs, institutional custody, and global consensus are the main sources of price support.

From on-chain data, USDT negative premium indeed reflects some outflow demand, but this is more of a passive adjustment of mainland existing funds rather than a fundamental market reversal. In the short term, panic selling may occur, but historical experience shows that such policy shocks are usually signals of "all the bad news being priced in"—the market just needs a clear boundary definition.

What truly warrants attention is the movement on the CEX side: restrictions on IP, strengthened KYC, and C2C shutdowns. If these measures are implemented, they will indeed accelerate the shift overseas and divert flows to gray channels. But for the global market, this is just a change in navigation routes; it cannot alter the overall tide.