#预测市场 Charlie has been with Paradigm for 8 years since joining at age 19, witnessing the growth of institutions from zero to one. Now, he has chosen to step down from his role as a general partner, which makes me think about many things.

In the investment world, we are often tempted by the idea of "predicting the future"—predicting the next hot trend, market directions, or which project will become a unicorn. But true wisdom often lies in recognizing our own position and rhythm. Charlie's decision is quite interesting; he hasn't completely left, but has shifted roles to continue participating as a board observer. This "knowing when to advance or retreat" attitude is worth pondering.

In long-term investing, we need to be wary of the mindset of "always staying at the forefront." Whether as fund managers or investors, over-pursuing a sense of involvement and control often leads us to make hasty decisions amid market volatility. Instead, maintaining a necessary distance, regularly reviewing our allocations, and making adjustments at the right time can help us go further.

Predicting the market is inherently a false proposition. Rather than wasting effort on guessing, it’s better to focus on safety education and position management—choosing trustworthy institutions, allocating reasonable proportions, and maintaining patience. This way, even if we cannot predict risks precisely, we will have enough buffer when risks arise.