Surface calmness, but undercurrents are surging.

Last night's fierce 5000-point rally tore through the market's silence like a lightning bolt splitting the night sky. As someone who has navigated multiple market cycles, I can feel that a storm is brewing.

Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating around $87,000, clearly retreating from recent highs. The market has established a clear range between $85,000 and $90,000. Behind this narrow fluctuation, it reflects conflicting market sentiments: trading volume has significantly shrunk, short-term selling pressure has eased, but buyers haven't shown obvious increased volume either. The entire market is waiting.

This suppressed calm is about to be broken. Global investors' attention is focused on one place—the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision in Tokyo.

**A Critical Moment for Currency Shift**

Today is the "heart of the matter" for global markets. The data is very clear: there is a 99% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates.

What does this mean? The Bank of Japan has long played the role of the world's largest provider of cheap funds. Its rate hike will trigger chain reactions. The most direct impact is on the carry trade—borrowing low-interest yen in Japan, converting to USD to invest in high-yield assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies, earning the interest rate differential.

Once the Bank of Japan raises rates, the interest rate spread narrows, and these trades face large-scale liquidations. Risk assets will endure a wave of concentrated selling pressure. History shows that every time the Bank of Japan initiates a tightening cycle, Bitcoin inevitably experiences a significant decline of 20% to 30%.

But savvy traders know a principle: the real opportunity often lies in the moment of crisis transition.