The market is getting interesting now. Bitcoin's monthly RSI has fallen to 56.5, below the 12-month moving average of 67.3, and only 2 points away from the 4-year moving average of 58.7—this is the first time in recent years that such a subtle situation has occurred.

Honestly, looking at this position, I feel both risk and opportunity. Bitcoin has declined 19.7% over the past three months, with a year-to-date drop of 10.5%. Market momentum is indeed waning. But historical experience tells us that the more such moments occur, the more we need patience and analysis rather than blind panic.

From a technical perspective, when the monthly RSI breaks below the 4-year moving average, it has usually triggered a deeper bear market. But this is nothing new—such technical signals appear before every major decline, and the key is how to interpret them.

Research institutions point out that the next 1 to 2 months are particularly critical. If the RSI can hold between 55 and 58, Bitcoin may have a chance to rebound; but if it continues downward and breaks below 55, it could mean further downside. There are both risks and opportunities here, depending on how one views the current market cycle.

Bitcoin's performance relative to gold is also worth watching. This indicator has shown similar lows in 2015 and 2018, and each time the market trend was different afterward. History never repeats exactly, but it often rhymes. The current liquidity conditions, market sentiment, and technical positioning all point to a critical juncture. The next move largely depends on how the market performs in the coming period.