#美联储回购协议计划 Next year’s Q1 may bring a good market window, but the prerequisite is that new trigger conditions need to mature.

The Federal Reserve’s policy orientation after the change in leadership emphasizes growth, and the market’s adjustment of interest rate expectations for next year has basically confirmed an optimistic outlook for the first quarter. But here’s an interesting point — policy implementation takes time to ferment, and sentiment changes often lead fundamental shifts.

Remember the big election a few years ago? Early market pricing of candidates was mainly based on their stance supporting crypto development. During that period, market reactions to related statements were particularly sensitive; a single tweet could move prices, demonstrating the power of short-term sentiment pricing. Risk assets’ attitude towards policymakers is essentially a form of emotional management, especially evident in assets like $BTC and $ETH .

If opportunities do not appear as scheduled in the first quarter, then continue to wait for the third quarter — this is based on my judgment of the cycle’s timing. There are basically no expectations for the second quarter, as various buffering factors are not favorable, and performance expectations are rather bleak.