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Unprecedented Bitcoin options settlement has just been completed, marking a new turning point in the market. The settlement amount reached as high as $23.7 billion, setting a new record, and was followed by a reshaping of the price formation mechanism.
Recently, Bitcoin's price has been tightly confined within the $85,000 to $90,000 range. This artificially suppressed situation is about to be broken. It can be imagined that the long-term suppressed market sentiment is like a tightly wound spring; once the restraint is removed, the rebound could be quite substantial.
An abnormal fluctuation in the USD1 trading pair on a major exchange earlier was a precursor—price suddenly dropped from $87,000 to $24,000 and then rebounded. Although it recovered quickly, it fully exposed the market's fragility when lacking sufficient liquidity. Such flash crashes indicate that large orders could cause extreme volatility in prices.
The real test of liquidity comes after the settlement. Once the buy and sell pressures from market makers for hedging risk subside, the market will be driven by fundamental factors. Interestingly, technical indicators are already showing signs of bullish divergence, suggesting that selling pressure may be waning.
Three suggestions for participants: First, within a few hours to a day after settlement, volatility will be unusually intense, so high-leverage positions should first avoid risk; second, closely monitor the key support zone between $85,000 and $88,000; third, focus on the long term—this massive settlement itself reflects market depth and institutional participation. After technical volatility subsides, macroeconomic environment and capital flows will become the main drivers of price movement.
This settlement may mark a watershed in 2025 or the beginning of a new cycle in 2026. The true answer will be revealed by the market.