2025 Bitcoin Review: From Institutional Breakthroughs to Technological Evolution, Outlook for 2026

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Retrospectiva 2025: Veja como foi o ano do Bitcoin e o que esperar de 2026 Original Link:

2025 Bitcoin Performance Review

2025 was a year of both setbacks and breakthroughs for Bitcoin. Although the year-end price hovered around US$90,000, below the US$126,000 all-time high set in October, labeling the entire year as “disappointing” would be factually incorrect.

Bitcoin spent most of the year trading above US$100,000, repeatedly hitting new all-time highs, and officially entering the institutional investor landscape of the global financial markets, alongside mature assets like Nasdaq stocks, commodities, and US Treasuries.

2025 was the most important year for Bitcoin institutionalization. This process began with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, but the real regulatory turning point occurred after Trump took office this year. Key changes include: the advancement of the Genius Act, the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US, approval of various crypto asset ETFs, and a surge in corporate Treasury-level Bitcoin purchases.

A well-known asset management firm allowed its 8 million clients to gain exposure through crypto ETFs, symbolizing Bitcoin’s transition from a niche asset to a strategic component of diversified portfolios.

Price Trend Details

January 6: Bitcoin first returned to US$100,000, attributed by the market to the “Trump trade” effect.

January 20: Trump’s inauguration day, Bitcoin hit a new high of US$108,786.

March 10: Influenced by Trump’s tariff policies and recession fears, Bitcoin fell to US$79,000, marking the worst first quarter performance since 2020.

April 8: The lowest point of the year at US$76,000.

May 22 to October 6: Continuous upward phase with multiple new highs:

• May 22: US$111,544
• July 10: US$112,055
• July 13: US$119,000+ (driven by Michael Saylor’s purchase announcement)
• July 14: US$122,780
• August 13: US$123,000+
• October 6: US$126,080 (annual high)

After October: Despite reaching new highs, the “October rally” was not sustained. Profit-taking by large holders and panic in traditional markets caused Bitcoin to retreat, ending the year around US$90,000.

A concerning signal is that the amount of Bitcoin unspent for over two years has decreased by 1.6 million coins (about US$14 billion) since early 2023, indicating ongoing selling by long-term holders. Nearly US$300 billion worth of long-inactive Bitcoin re-entered the market in 2025.

Record Mining Difficulty

Mining difficulty continuously hit new records:

• January: 109.78 trillion hashes
• August: 129 trillion hashes (transaction fees first fell below 1% of block rewards)
• November 9: 155 trillion hashes (annual high)

Notably, the proportion of non-financial data in Bitcoin blocks increased significantly, reaching 37% at one point, mainly from projects like OP_RETURN and Ordinals, accounting for about 0.58MB per block (total capacity of 1.5-1.6MB).

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

On March 6, Trump signed an executive order authorizing the creation of a digital asset treasury. The US government controls approximately 200,000 Bitcoin (worth about US$1.7 billion at the time).

However, progress has been limited. The order only organized and studied the use of confiscated assets, without automatically creating a reserve or authorizing new purchases. Operational issues such as custody, auditing, accounting standards, and management hinder implementation, leading to market cooling expectations. Any structural changes (like increased purchases or permanent assetization) require Congressional approval and coordination among federal agencies, which has not yet occurred.

Bitcoin Core Technical Updates

Version 29.0 (April 15): Fixed a technical bug that prevented miners from mining the largest possible blocks, enabling full utilization of the 4 million weight limit.

Version 30.0 (October 13): Allowed the OP_RETURN field to expand from 80 bytes to nearly 4MB, supporting multiple OP_RETURN outputs per transaction, with an aggregation limit of 100,000 bytes. This change sparked widespread discussion about the boundaries of Bitcoin blockchain use.

Outlook for 2026

Analysts point out two main perspectives:

Cycle Theory: Following the traditional four-year halving cycle model, Bitcoin should continue its upward trajectory.

Macro Correlation Theory: Bitcoin has become highly correlated with global financial market indicators, potentially leading to longer-term fluctuations.

Consensus suggests that while short-term volatility is inevitable, the institutional liquidity foundation has been established, and the long-term outlook remains optimistic. Bitcoin is expected to retake its all-time high in 2026; barring major macro shocks, it is unlikely to fall below US$80,000.