2025-12-26 00:21:29

Analyzed nearly four years of market data and discovered an interesting phenomenon. Whenever an important milestone approaches, Bitcoin options expiration eve almost always hits a high point. After the news is released and the US stock market opens, the market continues to surge to new highs. Then what? Usually, there is a correction of about 3% to 4%. This downward cycle typically does not include weekends and generally takes 2 to 3 trading days to digest. By the next week, the market begins a new upward trend.

The theory is clear, but in practice, it’s still a bit uncertain. Going short might be missed — because the high could be hit again. Not doing it? Then fear of missing out on this decline. At this point, the risk-reward ratio, risk tolerance, and personal style become the deciding factors. Some people can profit steadily by timing this rhythm, while others struggle with repeated highs and corrections.

Have you encountered this situation? Or do you have your own understanding and trading methods for this rhythm?

BTC-1,94%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

VitalikFanAccount

· 2025-12-28 21:24

This pattern sounds good, but who doesn't get repeatedly beaten up when actually trading? --- How likely is it to hit the high point again? Anyway, I always bet wrong every time. --- The factors that determine profit and loss ratio sound right, but I just can't control my hands. --- I've experienced both missing out and getting trapped; now I just don't look at the rhythm anymore. --- Saying that a 3-4% correction this wave is easy, but in reality, my mindset blows up when I lose money. --- I just want to know if anyone has really consistently made money by riding this rhythm. --- On options expiration day, I watched the high point but didn't dare to act, and then it hit a new high—so frustrating. --- Instead of studying patterns, it's better to study why I always mess up at critical moments.

View OriginalReply0

StablecoinSkeptic

· 2025-12-27 17:41

Looks good on paper, but actual trading is disappointing. I hesitate for those few seconds at the high point every time. Which is more painful, missing out or being trapped? Both can make people vomit blood. The four-year cycle sounds great, but when has the market ever not broken expectations? Honestly, it's all a gamble—betting that the house will stick to this routine again. My approach? Lie flat, so I don't have to worry about it every day.

View OriginalReply0

ForkMonger

· 2025-12-26 00:51

nah this is just pattern recognition theater, the market doesn't care about your four-year backtest when governance attacks reshape the entire liquidation landscape

Reply0

ContractSurrender

· 2025-12-26 00:51

Talking about trading on paper is easy, but actually executing often fails. I've been fooled by high points several times. Jumping back and forth between missing out and liquidation, honestly, it's still a psychological game. Saying that a 3% to 4% correction is easy to handle, but in practice, there are too many tricky points. I've seen a few who can accurately grasp the rhythm, but most of the time it's just good luck that they caught it, not real confidence. Instead of stressing over whether to short or not, it's better to wait for the correction to confirm before entering the market. Being steady is always better than chasing highs and getting caught.

View OriginalReply0

MondayYoloFridayCry

· 2025-12-26 00:25

If I hit the high point again, it's over. I always get stuck here.

View OriginalReply0

CrossChainMessenger

· 2025-12-26 00:25

Talking about strategies on paper is easy; in real combat, I often get confused. I frequently get stuck in the thought of "try again." There's always a tiny gap between a higher point and missing the opportunity. This tactic feels too easy to be targeted by a dump and sniper attack, so I don't dare to bet heavily. Honestly, it still depends on good stop-loss skills; no matter how perfect the theory, it can't withstand black swan events. Instead of guessing the high point, it's better to stick to the take-profit line. That's my experience. Every time, I struggle between taking profits or getting cut, wearing a pain mask.

View OriginalReply0

SadMoneyMeow

· 2025-12-26 00:22

Ha, it's the same old theory. I've tried a few times, and the result is always being proven wrong. Talking on paper is easy, but once you get on the bus, you start to waver. To be honest, I trust luck more. Higher and higher, who knows where the next one will be. I've experienced missing out and getting caught, now I choose to lie flat. I haven't fully grasped this wave of momentum, so all the big shots, please take it as you will. It just feels like gambling, with no stable profits.

View OriginalReply0