Over the years of trading, I’ve seen too many people get caught up in the market’s volatility. In fact, the core of judging whether a coin is truly on the rise boils down to these four aspects—Volume, Price, Time, and Space.

**Volume is the first signal**

After repeatedly rubbing at the bottom for a long time, the first surge in volume is definitely worth paying attention to. But I’ll tell you, that’s often not the most comfortable entry point. The real opportunity usually appears after a test of the dip and the second surge in volume, once the main force has finished shaking out the weak hands. By then, retail investors have been shaken out, and the chips are more concentrated. Take tokens like BEAT as an example—initial volume is just a test, the second wave of volume is the real upward move.

**Closing price determines the direction**

A sudden spike or intense volatility during trading hours doesn’t count. Whether the closing price can hold above the resistance level is the key. The process can be repeated, but as long as the close stays above, it indicates the main force’s intention is genuine. Large coins like ETH also follow this logic every time they break through.

**Consolidation needs to be deep enough**

Before a breakout, it’s best to see a consolidation period of over 3 months with decreasing volume, and the concentration of chips maintained below 10%. This structure means the main force has accumulated enough chips, and the subsequent explosion will be more powerful. The performance of 0G last year clearly shows this—ample sideways accumulation, culminating in a sudden surge.

**Identify the right resistance levels**

Key resistance points include the starting point of a volume drop, the neckline of a W bottom, the head and shoulders bottom, and those integer milestones—these can all become critical resistance levels. Pinpointing them clearly makes it easier to estimate the potential upside once broken.

Mastering these four dimensions allows you to judge genuine breakouts from false ones. But honestly, technical analysis is just a tool; cognition is the core competitive advantage. Many people trade well, but they think too little.