#预测市场 Seeing Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Underdog jointly establish a prediction market alliance, I felt a sense of familiarity. I’ve seen this kind of thing many times—when a sector truly moves toward regulation and multiple forces start to band together for survival, it often marks that the industry has passed its most savage growth phase.

Looking back, during the ICO boom of 2016, the chaos of the crypto world in 2017, and later the DeFi summer and NFT craze, each major wave had a common critical point—that shift from individual retail excitement to institutional players making rational strategic moves. Prediction markets are now reaching that same crossroads.

Data doesn’t lie. Nearly half of Americans under 45 have used prediction markets. The market valuation hit $28 billion in October this year, reflecting genuine user demand behind these numbers. Even more interestingly, prediction accuracy exceeds traditional polls by 30%, proving the value proposition of prediction markets. Coinbase plans to launch tokenized stocks and prediction market products on December 17, and Phantom is also launching Phantom Prediction Markets—this is no coincidence, but a sign of industry consensus.

But there’s a detail worth reflecting on: over 70% of Americans believe prediction markets should not be treated as gambling. That’s a significant statement. History shows that compliance is always the prerequisite for long-term vitality. Many projects that failed in the past didn’t die because of technology or concept issues, but because of regulatory uncertainty. Now, the five major platforms forming the CPM alliance is essentially about vying for regulatory authority in the industry and paving the way for the future.

This round of prediction market boom is more mature and disciplined than ever before. We’re not seeing frantic retail influxes, but rather orderly institutional deployment. How this cycle unfolds depends on the speed of regulatory progress and the iteration of user experience. Historical experience tells me that whoever can secure a compliant high ground at this critical moment will survive longer.