Recently, I've been a bit confused about the Federal Reserve's actions. The promised stable expectations turned into a strange "mutual fighting" move.

On one hand, they are flooding the market without hesitation—on December 22 alone, they injected $6.8 billion in liquidity, and in nearly 10 days, a total of $38 billion has been pumped out. On the other hand, they are also withdrawing liquidity through reverse repurchase agreements, with the overnight reverse repo scale soaring directly to $10.361 billion on the 18th. This is not market regulation; it's clearly "spending money to create a spectacle."

The root cause is still the enormous US debt pressure. An additional $700 billion of debt in three months has drained the market liquidity. Interbank borrowing rates have skyrocketed, making it extremely difficult for small businesses to get financing—this is a true reflection of the real economy.

But the most ironic thing is that all the money the Fed has pumped into the financial markets—S&P 500 hitting record highs, gold rising over 60% this year—yet ordinary workers' wages have shrunk for three consecutive months. Bitcoin is even more uncomfortable, repeatedly hovering around $86,000, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 25, signaling extreme fear.

The data is even more heartbreaking: long-term holders are continuously fleeing, with $300 billion of dormant Bitcoin re-entering the market this year. Spot ETFs have also turned into net capital outflows. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, historically tends to cause Bitcoin to retrace about 15% in such environments.

However, there is not entirely no hope. The stablecoin market size of $270 billion (including $16 billion USDT) is a potential ammunition reserve, and the Fed's reverse repo scale has fallen to a relatively low of $30.47 million, indicating that liquidity withdrawal is slowing down.

Honestly, this year's Christmas rally is unlikely to follow the past pattern of big gains. The internal conflicts within the Fed's policies have caused previous market rules to become invalid. To find a good entry point, the key is to watch the bank reserve ratio and reverse repo balance signals, and only consider entering when clear opportunities appear.

Those who survive and make money in the market are always those who dare to act first. Are you ready?