Yesterday, it was mentioned that many high-profile analysts in the industry are collectively shifting towards a bearish outlook. However, their judgment frameworks are primarily based on technical analysis, with a clear lack of consideration for macroeconomic factors. It is important to recognize that BTC has now become one of the top ten asset classes globally. Relying solely on candlestick patterns and technical indicators to predict the future market is obviously too one-sided.

This is precisely the root cause of the current market "entanglement"—two opposing forces are fiercely battling: on one side, technical analysis points to a bearish trend; on the other side, macroeconomic data remains relatively healthy. This misalignment creates intense swings in market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the US stock market has improved, and gold and silver are surging strongly. Investors' perceptions are rapidly "flipped," with many beginning to view BTC as an outdated asset, believing it cannot keep pace with other high-quality investments. Similar views appeared when ETH fell below $2000.

From a market structure perspective, we are currently in a structural bear market phase. BTC's current price is actually a reflection of a misjudged valuation by the market. The causes of this misjudgment are multiple: widespread emotional feedback from the traditional four-year cycle, short-term liquidity stagnation leading to market apathy, excessive concern over the US stock AI bubble causing valuation mismatches, and so on. Since it is a valuation misjudgment, there will inevitably be a correction—these extreme cold days will pass.

The key is not to follow the crowd.

Now, let’s shift our focus to macroeconomic data, starting with the M2 year-over-year growth rate. The correlation between Bitcoin's price movements and the global M2 supply and its growth rate often reveals the deeper logic of the market.