Intensive bottom signal coverage! Bitcoin faces a critical choice on the eve of a death cross: target $145,000 or is it within reach

Front Fork and Back Fork: Revalidation of Historical Patterns

On the technical side, Bitcoin is approaching the technical pattern that has precisely marked the cyclical bottom over the past 7 years—the convergence point of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. According to data compiled from multiple crypto market trackers, when this front fork (death cross) appears, the market typically undergoes intense short-term adjustments, triggering a rebound.

Historical records are clearly visible:

• In 2018, the same technical pattern appeared, and BTC bottomed at $6,480, then gained approximately 50%
• In March 2020, the low of $3,907 foreshadowed a subsequent surge to $68,000
• In April 2025, after a sell-off driven by tariff expectations, the $74,000 bottom was followed by a 69% rebound

On-Chain Data is “Synchronizing” Signals

Currently, Bitcoin’s price hovers around 87.84K, but on-chain data appears particularly interesting. Over 5 million BTC are in a loss position, and this scenario last occurred only 7 months ago—at that time, the price was $74,508, followed by a strong rebound.

Even more noteworthy is that Net Unrealized Profit Rate (NUP) has fallen to 0.476, approaching the critical threshold of 0.5 before each short-term reversal in history. On-chain analysis indicates that the current data structure resembles the “twins” before the April bottom, suggesting the probability of a short-term rebound is increasing.

Technical Pattern: Critical Breakout of the Downward Wedge

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is trapped within a clear downward wedge pattern, which typically experiences a directional breakout after completing consolidation. According to technical expectations, the breakout is more likely to occur within the next few trading days, targeting resistance around $120,000.

How far is the death cross?

Market participants generally believe that the full death cross will be completed by late November at the latest. Once the 50-day moving average truly crosses below the 200-day moving average, based on past patterns, BTC is likely to quickly find a bottom within 5 days at around $95,000.

If history repeats, the subsequent rebound is expected to be at least 50%, meaning Bitcoin could seek medium-term resistance near $145,000.

Beware of emotional decisions

Although some market participants believe the bull cycle is nearing its end, when technical signals and on-chain data both point to the bottom area, panic selling often becomes the most costly mistake. Data shows that reversal signs often appear within 48 hours after a death cross.

The key now is patience—waiting for the arrival of this November time window, when technical breakthroughs and the completion of the front fork may unfold simultaneously.