Dogecoin, long-term holders cut losses, deepening the bearish trend... trading within a range near $0.13

Recent Price Movements and Market Signals

Currently, Dogecoin(DOGE) remains bearish around the $0.13 level, recording a 24-hour decline of -0.48%. On-chain data over the past three weeks clearly reveal a structural weakening of the market. In particular, the resumption of movement in holdings held for over a year suggests that the circulation of old supply(old supply) is imminent.

‘Offloading’ Signals Detected by On-Chain Indicators

The weakening investor sentiment for DOGE, the largest meme coin by market cap, is clearly reflected in the Mean Coin Age(Mean Coin Age) indicator. According to Santiment(Santiment) data, the average holding age in the 365 days to 2 years range has decreased from 404 days on November 2 to 375 days currently. This is not just a numerical change but indicates the process of long-term inactive assets moving to new wallets.

More notably, the Spent Coins Age Band(365일~2년) indicator shows that the daily expenditure of holdings in this age group has surged continuously since November, with a daily sell-off of 693.07 million DOGE recorded as of November 10. This is the largest daily sell-off since 2.56 billion DOGE on May 9, marking an 8-month high. The activation of dormant supply is typically seen as a precursor to correction phases, suggesting that the current price weakness reflects structural vulnerabilities.

Derivatives Market Also Signals Risk-Off

Weakening demand from retail investors is also clearly confirmed in the derivatives market. According to CoinGlass(CoinGlass) data, DOGE futures open interest(OI) decreased from $14.8 billion on Tuesday to $14.3 billion on Wednesday. The decline in open interest indicates a reduction in open positions, especially long positions, reflecting a risk-averse sentiment.

Increased Likelihood of Technical Weakness

Dogecoin experienced a significant drop after failing to break through the supply zone near the close of October 11 at around $0.18527. It is currently struggling to hold above $0.17000, with a higher probability of retesting the June 27 low of $0.15704. If investor sentiment recovery is delayed, the correction could deepen to the April 7 low of $0.12896.

Momentum indicators also suggest a potential re-strengthening of bearishness. The daily RSI falling below the neutral 50 level indicates a bearish reversal, favoring selling. The MACD is approaching a crossover with the signal line, increasing the risk of a downward cross, which signals a heightened possibility of renewed bearish momentum.

However, an upward scenario also exists. If DOGE successfully recovers above $0.18527, there is technical room for a rebound attempt toward the 50-day exponential moving average(EMA) at $0.19914. The future direction of DOGE will likely be determined by the tug-of-war between these two resistance levels.