Powell's speech tonight, global markets hold their breath!

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is set to appear at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, with his speech scheduled for 22:00 Eastern Time tonight. This speech is widely regarded by the market as the most significant event in recent times, with institutions generally predicting that Powell will signal a hawkish stance to temper market optimism about rate cuts. In just one week, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 90% to 70%, reflecting a dramatic shift in market sentiment.

US Stock Futures Slightly Up, Individual Stocks Diverge

Before the opening of US stocks on Thursday, futures markets showed a slight upward trend. As of 6:26 AM Eastern Time, Dow Jones futures rose by 0.32%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.25%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.21%. However, at the individual stock level, gains and losses were mixed. Tech giant NVIDIA (NVDA) declined by 1.10% amid market rumors that it has asked some component suppliers to suspend H20 chip production. In contrast, electric vehicle leader Tesla (TSLA) rose against the trend by 0.50%.

US Dollar Continues to Strengthen, Yen Under Pressure

Supported by weakening rate cut expectations, the US dollar index resumed its upward trend. The USD/JPY is currently at 148.72, up 0.24%. With the Bank of Japan’s rate hike prospects uncertain, the Federal Reserve’s policy moves have become a key factor influencing the yen’s movement. Overnight index swap data indicates that the market assigns a 52% probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates in October.

Gold Faces Pressure, Risk at $3300 Level

The strength of the US dollar has suppressed precious metals, with gold prices declining for the second consecutive trading day. Gold is currently at $3,331 per ounce, down 0.23%. Analysts note that if Powell’s speech continues to dampen rate cut expectations, gold could further break below $3,300 per ounce; conversely, if Powell signals an unexpectedly dovish stance, the dollar may face a new round of selling, and gold could rebound accordingly.

Bitcoin Builds Momentum, Key at $87.63K

In the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering above a critical support level, with the latest price at $87,630. On-chain analysts point out that if Bitcoin can hold above certain price levels, it may open a new upward channel; if it loses key support, downside targets will emerge sequentially. The market generally believes that ahead of Powell’s speech, all assets are in a state of anticipation and readiness.

Multi-Asset Correlation, Awaiting Policy Clarification

Whether it’s stock futures, forex markets, commodities, or cryptocurrencies, current performance points to a single focus—the expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy. Powell’s speech at 22:00 tonight will be the key trigger determining the market’s subsequent direction, and global investors are already on high alert.