Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Outflows Persist as Liquidity Tightens

Source: CoinEdition Original Title: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Outflows Persist as Liquidity Tightens Original Link:

• ETF net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum have stayed negative since November, signaling reduced institutional participation.
• Ethereum and Bitcoin prices in 2025 closely tracked shifts in U.S. spot ETF inflows and outflows.
• On-chain data shows elevated stress, with sizable unrealized losses and continued long-term holder distribution.

Institutional fund flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds have remained under pressure since November, adding to signs of a broader liquidity contraction across the digital asset market, according to on-chain and ETF flow data.

Data indicates that the 30-day simple moving average (30D-SMA) of net ETF flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum turned negative since early November and has remained below zero since then. The persistence of negative flows suggests muted participation and partial disengagement from institutional allocators, rather than a short-lived shift in sentiment.

The trend has coincided with declining price momentum across both assets toward year-end, highlighting the role ETF demand has played in shaping market structure throughout 2025.

Ethereum Price Closely Tracks ETF Flow Cycles

Ethereum’s price action during 2025 has mirrored shifts in the U.S. spot ETF activity. At the beginning of the year, ETH traded in the $4,000 to $4,500 range while ETF flows were positive. That dynamic changed in March and April, when ETF activity turned negative.

During this period, Ethereum experienced one of its deepest sustained outflow phases on a 30-day average basis, coinciding with a price decline into the $1,500 to $2,000 range. The data shows reduced institutional demand during that phase.

From late May through August, ETF flows reversed and moved firmly into positive territory, peaking above 50,000 ETH on a rolling 30-day basis. This inflow period aligned with a strong price recovery, lifting ETH above $4,500 and toward $5,000. However, ETF flows turned negative again in October for a few days before returning to positive, and in November and December, they turned negative as ETH retraced toward the $3,000 range.

Bitcoin Reflects Similar ETF-Driven Structure

Bitcoin followed a comparable pattern. Early in 2025, BTC traded below $100,000 while ETF flows remained positive, supporting an upside momentum. That support weakened in March and April as sustained ETF outflows intensified, with the 30D-SMA reaching its deepest negative levels of the year. During this phase, Bitcoin declined toward the mid-$70,000 to $80,000 range.

ETF demand recovered between May and October, with inflows exceeding 2,000 BTC on a rolling 30-day basis. Bitcoin responded by reclaiming the $100,000 level before momentum faded again in the fourth quarter. Renewed ETF outflows from November through December coincided with BTC slipping back toward the $90k to $80k area.

On-Chain Stress Metrics Remain Elevated

Additional on-chain indicators show that long-term holder profit-taking has totaled approximately 3.8 million BTC since prices moved above the 2021–2022 all-time high. Although the pace of distribution has slowed, unrealized losses remain stabilized above roughly 5% of market capitalization.

Excessive long-term holder (LTH) spending has continued to weigh on market absorption, with approximately 3.8M BTC in realized profit since price broke above the 2021–2022 ATH. More recently, the pace of LTH distribution has slowed. A sustained cooldown in LTH profit-taking is a key indicator to monitor.

At current levels near $90,000, an estimated 20% to 30% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is held at a loss, a configuration that closely resembles market conditions observed in early 2022, according to the data cited.