#数字资产市场动态 The four-year cycle curse of Bitcoin is really still at play.

You can see the structure of the price trend to understand that this cycle basically replicates the recurring rhythm in history — starting from a low point, experiencing a vigorous main rally, then beginning to fluctuate wildly at high levels, followed by deep retracement to build a bottom, and entering the next cycle. The rhythm is intact, and the pattern remains.

How to interpret this point now? The high point of this cycle is likely to be settled between the first half and the second half of this year. This area is more like a cycle top rather than a trend continuation. In other words, even if new highs are reached later, it will mostly be a repeated top in the top area, not the start of a new main rally.

When will the real bottom arrive? According to historical patterns, it should be around mid-2026. It usually takes about a year to fall from the cycle high to the low, with a decline range generally between 55% and 70%. Corresponding to $BTC's specific price, the bottom is most likely to fall between $40,000 and $65,000. In extreme cases, it might dip below $30,000, but the probability of dropping back below $20,000 is very small.

From a broader perspective, the true definition of the four-year cycle is "low point to low point." If a new cycle bottom forms around mid-2026, then the next cycle's high will appear around Q3 2029. Historically, Bitcoin's halving events usually lead to a true high 12-18 months later, not in the halving year itself.

Overall, we are now in the early to mid-stage after this cycle's high. The next year will be characterized by high volatility and repeated bottom testing. The truly comfortable long-term accumulation window should be in the interval from 2026 to 2029.