#比特币流动性 Looking at a set of BTC data, I want to discuss the changes in the cost basis of short-term holders.

As of recently, retail-dominated short-term holders' cost basis is stuck at the 101,538 price level. Since falling below this level at the end of October, $BTC has been hovering below this line for nearly two months. Interestingly, similar situations have occurred in the past—after breaking below at the end of February, it held for 57 days; after breaking below in early August last year, it held for 50 days; and before that, in mid-August 2023, it held for 60 days. It seems that this 56-day performance might be approaching a cycle point?

Can it rebound? It’s definitely possible. Based on current price behavior, the market is working on building a bottom. Once the bottom is formed, the price will naturally move toward the cost basis, or even break through it. Moreover, as time passes, the cost basis of retail investors will also move downward, likely to around 100,000. So even if there is a rebound later, the pressure at the 100,000 level will probably be quite significant.

But this time might be different. The previous three adjustments all occurred during a bull market, with completely different market backgrounds. Now? Most on-chain data are flashing signals of a bear market. My feeling is that even if the price rises above the cost basis, it might not hold. The rebound could easily break down again and continue downward.

So the key is not whether it can rebound, but whether it can stabilize after rebounding. That’s the real test.