Recently, many people have been asking: does Ethereum still have hope? Is the next step to continue to rise or is it going to crash?

My judgment is very straightforward - Ethereum is neither in a bull market nor a bear market right now, but in a typical "trader harvesting" volatile situation.

Here's what the market is saying: Recently, every rise has a common flaw. It shoots up quickly, but the volume doesn't follow, and there are upper shadows everywhere. What does this mean? It means there are always people waiting to take over at the top, enticing you to follow the trend and buy in.

But what about the decline? The situation is quite interesting. Every time there is a sharp drop, there is immediately capital to support it, and the price is quickly pulled back up. There has never been a continuous panic sell-off. In simple terms, the bears are not brave enough to really crash the market.

The result is that Ethereum is tightly locked in a box - it can't rise up or slide down, specifically grinding down undisciplined traders here.

In this market situation, the outcome for everyone is not great:

The group of people chasing breakthroughs? They get hit by a wave and run away with floating losses. The ones holding heavy positions? They are worn down by small fluctuations until they lose patience, and in the end, they cut their losses at the slightest rebound. Those who operate frequently and aimlessly, without a plan? Their account curves are hard to look at.

If you are trading contracts, the most important thing to remember is: don't chase the long positions, don't panic, set small stop losses, and enter and exit quickly. This is not a trending market at all; it's just a high-frequency oscillation rhythm, and you shouldn't chase it.

What if you're doing swing trading? The most critical thing right now is not placing orders, but waiting for signals. Either you see a volume breakout of the range followed by a pullback that doesn't break, or you see an extreme drop quickly recover. Besides these two scenarios, I would rather do nothing and stay in cash waiting for opportunities.

Friends in spot trading shouldn't be too concerned. The fundamentals of Ethereum haven't collapsed; it's just a slow pace, like taking two steps forward and one step back. Gradually increase your position, be patient, and definitely avoid leveraging; these are much more important than blindly guessing price levels.

Final words: Today's Ethereum is not for making quick money, but rather for testing your trading discipline. The longer you survive, the more qualified you are to wait for the real trend market to arrive.