#比特币持有 After watching the MSTR case, I have to say something truthful: the old "selling stocks to buy coins" flywheel has completely failed. Since October, it has fallen by 50%, while BTC itself has only fallen by 31%. The pain of this leveraged amplification is sobering.

The core issue is actually quite painful - mNAV fell from its peak to 1.15, and the premium has been severely compressed. Once it drops below 1.0, continuing to issue stocks will become self-dilution. That's why Saylor has been quick to respond recently: in November, he only bought 130 BTC, which is insignificant for an institution holding 650,000 coins, indicating that they have already realized the problem.

Now there are three options on the table: first, to admit defeat and shrink, accepting long-term discounted trading; second, to bet on external liquidity support, which essentially only delays the inevitable; third, to accelerate the issuance of preferred stock STRC to survive, but this is like drinking poison to quench thirst—annual dividend burdens are already nearing $750 million and will only grow explosively in the future.

The most realistic detail is the $1.44 billion reserve. This is not a good sign; rather, it exposes Saylor's helplessness being cornered — he dares not continue issuing shares to buy coins, and can only prepare cash for defense. Even such a trader has to admit reality, so our logic for following should be adjusted.

If you previously believed in the strategy of "holding institutional positions means you can lie down and win," now you must wake up: not all BTC holding strategies can outperform spot trading. Directly holding coins is actually clearer than being trapped in complex capital structures. In the end, playing the leverage game still comes at a cost.