#比特币持有 After seeing MSTR's recent operations, I really can't hold back anymore. It has fallen from October to now, directly experiencing a 50% Slump, while Bitcoin itself has only dropped by 31%. This is the double-edged sword of leverage.

What's even more outrageous is that the "selling stocks to buy coins" flywheel has completely malfunctioned. mNAV has fallen continuously from its peak, and the premium has been severely compressed to 1.15. Once it drops below 1.0, it won't be able to continue issuing stock for financing. How much Bitcoin do you think it bought recently? In the first half of November, it was only 130 coins, investing 11.7 million USD. For a company holding 650,000 BTC, this is simply a drop in the bucket, clearly hitting the brakes.

Now we still have to face the pressure of $750 million to $800 million in preferred stock dividends each year, and the software business simply can't bear it. We can only rely on the $1.44 billion reserve raised from selling stocks to hold on. Interestingly, the CEO has stated that if the financing runs dry, they may really have to consider selling coins.

In simple terms, there are three options: either actively shrink and admit defeat by not buying coins; or bet on Bitcoin to rise and restart the script; or accelerate issuing preferred stocks to suck the blood of retail investors, but this will only increase the debt, and ultimately, you still have to sell coins. No matter which path is taken, that once genius strategy can no longer be played out. Now, buying spot ETFs seems to be much easier.