Many people think that the current fall is just a market adjustment, but the reality may be more severe. Bitcoin is entering a cyclical Bear Market phase that spans 12-14 months—liquidity is tightening, market sentiment is eroding, and most investors are still fantasizing about a V-shaped Rebound.

To be honest, the real bottom may have to wait until a year later, and the price might even touch the $60,000 range. But before that, the market will first provide a bait: a quick surge to $97,000 or even $107,000 of "false prosperity". First a party, then a fall—this is the rhythm ahead.

This is not just a simple short-term fluctuation. Essentially, it is a dual game of liquidity and psychology. The main themes in the coming months will be sideways movement, price manipulation, investor fatigue, and the final collapse—"surviving to the next round." What should smart traders do? One hand lays out short positions to cope with the risk of a deep fall, while the other waits with light positions for a rebound opportunity around $100,000. It is no longer a question of bullish or bearish, but rather who can hold on until the bull market restarts.

What is even more worrying are the signals from the macroeconomic front. The Federal Reserve recently adjusted the standing repo facility, directly raising the daily limit for each bank to $240 billion—effectively turning the central bank into a "24-hour liquidity IV station." Historical experience tells us that whenever the financial system requires this level of emergency transfusion, the market often does not take off, but instead enters a deeper stage of the Bear Market.

If this logic holds, we may unconsciously be heading towards a greater risk in 2026 - accompanied by a cycle of money printing, declining currency purchasing power, and volatile asset prices. Most people will panic and cut their losses, but only a few will survive to reap the rewards.