Another major institution has released a prediction for 2026, directly presenting a heavyweight viewpoint: "The four-year cycle theory is outdated; Bitcoin will definitely hit a new high in the first half of the year." Once this statement came out, two camps in the crypto world immediately clashed—some are eager to increase their holdings, while others say this is just a typical trap to cut leeks. My view is that the logic itself is not problematic, but be very careful not to go all-in just because of the phrase "new high," as there are two pitfalls hidden here that could cause you to lose everything.

Let's first lay out the core logic of this institution: one reason is that the global demand for alternative value storage tools is rising, the US dollar's status as a reserve currency is weakening, and non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin are becoming increasingly regarded as "safe harbors" by more and more people; another reason is that the regulatory framework for the US crypto market may become clearer. Once legislation is finalized, institutional funds will flow in continuously. These two points are indeed long-term positives and are the underlying logic behind the ongoing discussion in the crypto community about the "institutionalization era."

But the key issue is this. They are saying "possibly hitting a new high," not "definitely hitting a new high," and this is limited to the "first half of the year." There are two very easy traps hidden in this statement.

The first trap is blindly believing that "once institutions come in, the price must rise." Some think that with large funds entering the market, they can just buy without much thought and wait for profits. But the reality is not that simple. Institutional funds enter the market gradually, not all at once. The institution itself admits that currently, assets managed by US wealth management advisors hold less than 0.5% in crypto assets. Moreover, institutions are much more sophisticated than retail investors—they will gradually accumulate during market dips and will never foolishly buy at the high points. If you chase the high now, you're basically just giving away money.