The degree of disagreement at the Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting is indeed worth paying attention to. According to CME data, the probability of a 25bp rate cut is 84%, but the more important information behind this number is that there is a rare split within the FOMC since 2019, with 5 members opposing or doubting further easing.

What does this mean? The market may be overestimating the "certainty" of a rate cut. Nomura economists' view makes sense — the risk of not cutting rates in December is seriously underestimated. The key is not whether to cut rates, but the scale of voting disagreement and the strength of Powell's wording.

From an on-chain perspective, such macro disagreements are usually reflected in fund flows in advance. If Thursday's meeting results are "hawkish," we expect to see increased pressure for stablecoin inflows into exchanges. Conversely, a "dovish" signal could trigger a round of risk asset buying.

Short-term volatility is hard to avoid, but the real key lies in the policy path in the first half of 2026. The current approach should be to closely monitor Powell's remarks regarding "data dependence" and the specific voting disagreement data — these details will directly influence subsequent institutional position adjustments and on-chain fund allocation directions.