Market movement forecast: Hasset leads the race for Federal Reserve Chair

【BlockBeats】Recently, an interesting phenomenon in the prediction market has attracted a lot of attention—the growing enthusiasm for betting on Haskett as the next Federal Reserve Chair. As of December 20th, this option has risen to 54% on Polymarket, and Kalshi has also followed suit at 51%, essentially tying.

In comparison, the probabilities of Waugh and Waller being nominated by Trump are ranked second and third. From the fluctuations in these numbers, market participants’ optimism about Haskett is indeed expanding.

This type of prediction market data can actually reflect market consensus—investors use real money to express their judgments, so these probability figures are often more valuable than traditional polls. In any case, these fluctuations serve as a reminder for us to closely monitor policy changes, as the choice of Federal Reserve Chair directly impacts the direction of monetary policy and asset allocation.