December 19 Morning Thought Analysis

The latest US CPI data shows that the core inflation rate in November has fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years. However, the economic community generally questions the "reliability" of the data: this report seems to have some anomalies. Due to the longest government shutdown in history, the data collection process was significantly disrupted, with several long-standing high inflation subcategories—especially housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI—unexpectedly slowing down considerably. Prices in sectors like airline tickets and clothing also saw notable declines.

Yesterday, our strategy of entering long positions at low market levels was validated. After the CPI release in the evening, the cryptocurrency market surged quickly, with Bitcoin rising about 3000 points and Ethereum also climbing over 100 points. However, due to market doubts about the authenticity of the inflation data, the US stock market retreated, dragging the crypto market back. Unfortunately, our preset entry points for short positions were slightly off, and we missed the trades.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin closed with a long upper shadow for two consecutive days, forming a bearish candlestick, and Ethereum also closed this morning with a doji star with an upper shadow. The price is currently near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with the KDJ indicator's three lines at low levels, and the downward momentum has slowed. The MACD lines are in a death cross downward, and volume has slightly increased. Overall, the indicators still lean weak. Although the current trend is a weak downward movement, there is no strong downward breakout, so excessive bearishness is not warranted. Intraday, attention can be paid to a rebound wave.

Operation Suggestions
Buy on dips around 84800-84300, targeting 86200-87000, and continue upward if broken, aiming for 88000.