#大户持仓动态 Tariffs and Manufacturing Relocation: The Crypto Market Logic in This Cycle

Recently, Trump's remarks in a nationwide televised speech have caused quite a stir among economists, media, and investors. He claimed that within just 10 months, tariffs policies created over $18 trillion in economic activity for the United States. During Biden's four-year term, the investment commitments did not even reach $1 trillion.

It sounds a bit exaggerated at first glance, but a closer look at the underlying numbers and breakdown reveals that the logic is actually quite straightforward.

**Misinterpreted "Tariff Revenue"**

This is not simply tariff tax revenue. More accurately, it refers to the amount that companies proactively announce as investments and factory constructions in the U.S. to circumvent tariff pressures. When $BTC prices fluctuate, we often discuss capital flows; the logic here is similar—policy changes alter cost structures, prompting capital to move accordingly.

Effects of tariffs:
• Actual tariff revenue: hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars (a new historical high)
• Corporate investment commitments: trillions of dollars for factories, employment, energy, and technological infrastructure

The former is direct revenue; the latter is the real "big head" of this cycle.

**Why Crypto Industry Participants Should Pay Attention**

What happens if the second term continues to escalate tariffs against China and Europe?

• Surge in domestic energy projects in the U.S. (mining requires electricity)
• Expansion of manufacturing and data center infrastructure
• Increased investment in $BTC and mining-related infrastructure
• Localization of the tech supply chain

These changes directly impact mining costs, data center operations, and the overall infrastructure development of the Web3 industry. Falling energy costs and optimized computing power costs provide substantial support for the long-term bullish case of $BTC.

**Reversal of Macro Logic**

Over the past decade of globalization, we’ve become accustomed to dispersed supply chains and outsourced costs. Now, this script is reversing—trade barriers are being rebuilt, and manufacturing relocation is becoming a core policy focus.

It may sound chaotic, but from an asset allocation perspective, it signals a systemic shift. Historically, whenever global tensions escalate, hard assets tend to gain premiums. Tokens like $ETH$BNB, which represent computing resources, also fall into this logic.

One of Bitcoin’s advantages is precisely here—it doesn’t care about borders or exchange rate fluctuations but exists as a form of value storage that transcends geopolitical boundaries.

**Underlying Logic**

Macro policies are being weaponized. Trade wars are not over; they are merely evolving in form. Tariffs, subsidies, infrastructure investments—these are policy tools vying for a new position in the global economic landscape.

In this context, it’s important to be prepared.