The Real Litigation Process of Ripple vs SEC: What Really Happens Behind the Scenes

While social media continues to speculate about the outcome of the Ripple vs SEC trial, a former SEC attorney has provided clarity on how the legal mechanism actually works. Marc Fagel recently explained the internal procedure that must be followed before any final resolution, debunking most of the rumors circulating on Crypto Twitter.

Breaking Down the True Dismissal Procedure

Following Judge Analisa Torres’s decision on June 26, the administrative process has barely begun. The SEC must prepare a formal enforcement recommendation, a process that typically takes between 1 and 2 months. Once this document is completed, it is sent to the SEC commissioners for a formal vote.

Fagel clarified a crucial point: dismissing an active litigation requires a vote by the commissioners, whereas closing a preliminary investigation not brought before courts follows a different procedure. This technical detail is essential to understand why timelines are not immediate.

The Calendar Around August 15

There is no fixed deadline for both parties to withdraw their appeals in the Ripple vs SEC case. However, the court expects status updates around August 15. If the parties reach an agreement or decide to end their legal remedies, they will publicly submit dismissal documents. The SEC could issue an official statement, although this is not guaranteed.

When Will the Resolution Come? The Honest Answer is Uncertainty

According to Fagel, any estimate of when the dismissal or an agreement in the Ripple vs SEC case will actually happen is pure speculation. The outcome could materialize in weeks or require more time. It all depends on the SEC’s internal processing pace. The expert explicitly emphasized that the case is not facing abnormal delays or unusual procedures.

Debunking August Rumors

There is a constant rumor giving a 70-90% probability of an agreement by August 2025, based on the fact that Torres’s previous rulings have hindered the SEC’s progress. However, this projection lacks solid legal foundation. Previous judicial decisions do not automatically generate a quick resolution; they only structure the framework within which the SEC must operate.

Regarding speculation about fines of $50 million without a court order: that has already been decided by the court. There is no uncertainty in that aspect of the litigation.

Conclusion: Patience, No Predictions

The Ripple vs SEC litigation continues its normal legal course without anomalies. Although August 15 will likely bring status updates, this does not guarantee an immediate resolution. The uncomfortable truth is that the SEC’s administrative process follows its own schedule, independent of the rumors dominating social media.