Tom Lee recalibrates his bullish outlook: Bitcoin could still surprise before the end of the year

Bitcoin is currently trading at $86.34K, down 3.91% in 24 hours, but far from the previous highs of $126.08K. After the corrections in October and November that pushed the price down to $80,000, the market shows signs of recovery with quotes above $90,000.

In this volatile context, Tom Lee, the renowned co-founder of Fundstrat, has decided to review his forecasting strategy. The analyst, famous for his extreme bullish positions on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, changed his mind regarding his previous prediction of $250,000 by the end of the year. During a recent interview with CNBC, Lee proposed a more realistic but equally optimistic scenario.

The new perspective: $100K+ is likely before December

According to Lee, there is a significant probability that Bitcoin will break the psychological barrier of $100,000 before the year ends, with possibilities even of setting a new all-time high. “I remain convinced that it is very likely that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 before the end of the year, possibly setting a new record,” the analyst stated.

What’s interesting about Lee’s projection is his focus on the “key trading days.” According to his analysis, only 35 calendar days remain to close 2025, but Bitcoin has historically concentrated its biggest gains in a small number of trading sessions.

The historical pattern supporting the bullish thesis

Data from 2024 is revealing: the 10 strongest days of the year generated a cumulative return of 52%, while the remaining 355 days accumulated just a 15% average return. This concentration of gains in specific sessions is the central argument Lee uses to maintain his optimism.

“Bitcoin typically generates its main gains in only 10 days each year,” the analyst pointed out. This pattern suggests that although recent volatility has been unfavorable, the last days of the year could bring significant movements for BTC.

What to expect at year-end?

Although Tom Lee abandoned his $250,000 prediction, his update maintains an optimistic tone. The main message is that there is still time for bullish surprises in Bitcoin. With history showing that the main gains are concentrated in specific days, year-end volatility could work in favor of the bulls.