The non-farm payroll data to be released tonight is generally expected to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%, with approximately 50,000 new jobs added. However, the overall market liquidity is currently weak; if the data ultimately turns out to be significantly bearish, BTC is likely to face a deep correction. The most ideal scenario is for the data to remain neutral, avoiding sharp volatility.

It is worth noting that tonight, in addition to the November data, the revised figures for October will also be released. Currently, both the US stock market and the crypto market are trading on the expectation of a "soft landing"—hoping for a gentle economic slowdown while the Federal Reserve maintains a relatively accommodative stance. BTC already declined earlier last night, briefly dropping below $86,000, then rebounded to around $88,000, during which the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded $500 million.

This volatility mainly stems from previous excessive long leverage, combined with rising market risk aversion. However, on-chain activity shows that long-term holders have not significantly reduced their positions, and some institutional funds are still accumulating on dips. As long as tonight’s data does not deviate seriously from expectations, the market may exhibit a "rebound after expectations are met," with BTC short-term potential to rise to the $92,000–$95,000 range.

Just took a quick look at the real-time position distribution and found that many long positions are entering again…
#BTC行情分析 #市场触底了吗？