$BTC $ETH Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon—the rate cut has arrived, but the market has actually fallen. It seems contradictory, but a closer look makes it clear.

There are actually three key points. First, the expectations for a rate cut next year have been cut back. Internal Federal Reserve data shows that only one rate cut is planned for 2025, but the market had previously anticipated three. This gap is significant enough that investor expectations shifted from three to one, and disappointment immediately followed.

Second, the probability of the next rate cut has dropped to around 55%. What does this mean? It indicates that the room for future policy easing might be much smaller than expected. Uncertainty has increased, and the market naturally becomes more cautious.

The most poignant point is that Powell explicitly raised the threshold for a rate cut this time, reaffirming the Federal Reserve's independence and policy flexibility. There was a similar signal in history, and what was the result? The rate cut was directly paused for nine months. Clearly, investors are comparing this to that period.

So what the market is anxious about now is not the rate cut itself, but the fear that the subsequent easing cycle might suddenly come to a halt or slow down significantly. Expectations have been adjusted, and the market trend has naturally shifted accordingly. That’s why, despite the rate cut news, the market saw a decline.