Want to see if the market is really afraid? Just look at the spread between investment-grade corporate bonds and government bonds.

This difference essentially reflects the "risk premium" investors require — corporate bonds have higher default risk, so their returns must be higher than government bonds, and how much higher reflects investors' sentiment.

During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the spread was a full 6 percentage points. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was also alarming, with a spread of 3 percentage points. And now? Less than 1 percentage point, precisely 0.78% — close to the lowest level in history.

What does this indicate? Investors generally believe the economy is still stable, and the risk of corporate default isn't that high. In other words, everyone is relatively confident in the current financial market environment and doesn't feel the need for a high risk premium.