#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 The Federal Reserve's December meeting concludes, signaling a change in policy pace

According to the latest Fed decision, the 25 basis point rate cut was in line with expectations, with the federal funds target range now at 3.50%-3.75%. After the third consecutive rate cut, the overall pace of the rate cut cycle has clearly slowed down.

What’s more noteworthy is the dot plot signal — only one rate cut is expected in 2026 and 2027, each by 25 basis points. Compared to the market’s previous optimistic outlook, this shift indicates a move from a "moderately accommodative" stance to a "wait-and-see and cautious" mode.

Inflation shows no obvious signs of improvement. Although it has eased somewhat since the beginning of the year, it remains relatively high. Authorities even lowered the inflation forecast for 2026, indicating that price stickiness is stronger than expected. On the economic front, while GDP growth projections have been raised, employment data have turned cautious — the phrase "low unemployment rate" was removed, explicitly stating that employment faces downside risks, with the unemployment rate forecast held steady at 4.4%.

There are two major changes regarding the balance sheet: starting December 12, the Fed will resume Treasury purchases, with plans to inject $40 billion within 30 days; simultaneously, the cap on overnight repurchase agreements has been removed, indicating adjustments to the liquidity toolkit.

Overall, the core message conveyed by the Fed’s policy combination is cautious and restrained. $BTC $ETH $SOL These risk assets are highly sensitive to interest rates, and the slowing pace of rate cuts suggests that liquidity-driven momentum will be noticeably weaker than before, which may lead to a re-calibration of market pricing.