#美联储降息预测 The rate cut itself is no longer that important

The Federal Reserve is about to announce its final rate decision for the year.
It’s almost an open secret now: a 25 basis point cut.
Before the positive expectation is realized, it counts as a bullish factor; once realized, it no longer does. That’s how smart money plays.

01 Highly Aligned Expectations
According to ONE’s data, the probability of a rate cut is already as high as 87%-89.5%.
Once it happens, the rate will be in the 3.5%-3.75% range.
Investors still believing “rate cut = bullish” need to change their mindset quickly.
When everyone takes a rate cut for granted, the current state of the market already reflects it—not the future.
At the moment the rate cut result is announced, US stocks and crypto might see a brief spike and dip, but there probably won’t be much volatility.

02 What’s More Important
The future is more important.
That is, expectations for 2026 matter more.
At each rate decision, the Fed updates its forecast for future rates: the length of the rate cut cycle, whether there will be more cuts in 2026, and if so, how many.
These details have a greater market impact.
However, this time, due to the government shutdown, the statistical department wasn’t working, leaving the Fed short on some data. So, the forecasts and decisions for the future will be even more vague and uncertain, which might lead to bigger swings.

03 Don’t Forget Japan
Another major event this month is the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy on December 19.
The probability of a rate hike is over 80%.

Simply put, the yen has been the world’s best arbitrage tool for over 20 years. If there’s a rate hike, arbitrage traders will face a double hit of “rising financing costs” and “FX losses.”
And the main players are institutions.
How will they respond?
By closing positions—selling US stocks, Bitcoin, and other assets to pay off debts.
The market impact is obvious.
On one side, the Fed’s rate cut expectation has already been realized; on the other, Japan’s rate hike is “drawing out liquidity.”
What follows might not be a big rally, but possibly selling pressure.

04 Possible Trends
Meeting expectations
Most likely: a 25bp rate cut.
After that, the Fed chair gives no clear forward guidance, dodging the issue.
As mentioned above, aside from a brief spike and dip, there won’t be much change. The market will remain range-bound, following established trends, and wait for Japan’s rate hike decision on the 19th.

Dovish expectations
25bp rate cut.
Forecast more than two rate cuts in 2026.
The dollar weakens, assets priced in dollars rise, US stocks rally and lift crypto, liquidity flows back in.

Hawkish expectations
25bp rate cut.
Forecast limited room for rate cuts in 2026.
The dollar strengthens, dollar-denominated assets fall, crypto pulls back, liquidity tightens.
But if this is only an expectation, not a policy shift, it could be a “fakeout.”
With Japan’s rate hike also in the mix, two negatives could combine for significant impact.
Reducing positions or temporarily stepping out are both solid choices.
Controlling position size is the essence of trading.

05 How will the market move?
Not sure if others feel this way, but right now, Bitcoin acts like this: when US stocks rise, it doesn’t follow much; when stocks fall, it’s quick to drop.
This is a form of negative skew—Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq is now negative, at -0.43.
This asymmetry is making it harder to make money in crypto.
If dovish expectations prevail, US stocks rise and Bitcoin follows a little.
If hawkish expectations prevail, US stocks fall and Bitcoin plunges.

06 The Real Game
The rate cut itself has long been priced in by the market.
The real game is in the narrative after the cut—especially expectations for future policy and subtle shifts in global liquidity.
In such an uncertain phase, instead of chasing news that’s already priced in, it’s better to calmly watch the flow of funds and the resonance of macro variables.
The market never repeats historical logic simply—each cycle wipes out old thinking and rewards new insights.