QCP analysis points out that BTC fluctuated at high levels between 88k–92k over the weekend, while ETH surged from 2,910 to 3,150. Year-end thinning liquidity has made the market highly sensitive to small capital flows. Despite the intense volatility, the scale of liquidations remains moderate. BTC/ETH perpetual open interest has declined 40–50% from the October peak, with retail interest returning to bear market levels. Over the past two weeks, about 25,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges, and for the first time, ETF + corporate holdings have surpassed exchange balances. ETH exchange reserves have also dropped to a ten-year low. The market's attention is now on this week's FOMC meeting—if a 25bp rate cut is delivered, balance sheet guidance may become the key to market direction. BTC is waiting to break out of the 84k–100k range, and holiday liquidity could trigger a trend-defining move.