Looking at all historical data, whenever long-term holders capitulate, it usually corresponds to periods when BTC prices are relatively high. However, there's a slight difference: in the first four cycles, long-term holder capitulation coincided with an increase in exchange reserves, which means that true long-term holders were selling, and their selling likely represented exiting the market after high prices.

This data has never missed in past history—whenever long-term holders started selling in large numbers, it usually marked a historical high for Bitcoin. But this cycle is completely different. Although long-term holders are also selling, exchange reserves are actually decreasing, indicating that the real sellers may not be the long-term holders, but rather that exchange reserves are being depleted.

So, for the market right now, it appears that long-term holders are continuing to hold, while exchange reserves are being consumed due to reduced selling, which is one of the reasons for the decrease in long-term holders. Therefore, in the past, when this data appeared, BTC prices would typically rise, but now the opposite is happening. That leaves only two possibilities:

1. This data is no longer following historical trends.
2. The current data is in a similar red zone as in 2021.

A similar situation occurred in 2021, right after the 3/12 crash, and it wasn't until July that the market began to gradually rebound and rise. It's possible that the current situation could play out in the same way.