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The Fed's Final Battle of the Year: 84% Probability of a Rate Cut, but Internal Disagreements Are Heating Up
[BlockBeats] The key point is here—the most crucial central bank meeting week of the year is about to begin.
First, let’s talk about the main event from the Federal Reserve: at 3:00 AM on Thursday, the interest rate decision will be announced, followed by a press conference with Jerome Powell half an hour later. The market’s verdict is clear—according to CME data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has soared to 84%.
But this meeting might not be so calm. Internal disagreements are widening—among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 5 have explicitly expressed reservations about further monetary easing, while 3 board members are in favor of a rate cut. Since 2019, the FOMC has never had three or more dissenting votes at a single meeting, which shows just how divided things are this time.
So investors are not just watching whether rates will be cut—they care more about: What exactly are the policymakers arguing about? What signals will Powell give at the press conference? These factors may be more important than the rate cut itself.
Besides the Fed, there’s a slew of other central bank actions next week:
Tuesday: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision, followed by a press conference with Governor Bullock.
Wednesday: The US will release the Q3 Employment Cost Index; the Bank of Canada will also announce its rate decision.
Thursday (in addition to the Fed): The US weekly initial jobless claims data will be released, which is key for gauging the strength of the labor market.
Friday: The Fed will release the Financial Accounts of the United States for Q3 2025, which includes data on the financial health of US households; several Fed officials (Philadelphia Fed’s Harker, Cleveland Fed’s Mester, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee) will deliver speeches. All are voting members in 2026, giving their words substantial weight.
One last reminder: Due to the Christmas holiday, US stock markets will close early at 2:00 AM Beijing time on the 25th; on Thursday, US stocks, many European stock markets, as well as markets in South Korea and Australia will be closed all day. Precious metals, crude oil, forex, and equity index futures trading on CME and ICE will also be suspended. Traders—don’t get caught off guard.
This week, it’s all about watching the central banks and the data.
A rate cut ≠ good news; it still depends on how he tries to “prepare” the market.
Haven’t seen this kind of situation since 2019—feels like the signals from this meeting will be even more important than the actual outcome.
Five dissenting votes? Someone’s really trying to go against the grain—even interest rate policy is getting caught up in internal conflict.
Staying up until 3 a.m. to watch the decision isn’t worth it—better to sleep and see how the big players interpret it after the market opens.
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5 people opposed? Haven’t seen this since 2019. Powell really needs to say something at this press conference to keep things under control.
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Rate cuts are already a done deal, but such big disagreements show that the bigwigs really have no confidence in the future policy direction. No wonder the market’s been so volatile lately.
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Meeting at 3, press conference at 3:30—this schedule… guess I’ll have to stay up late to watch the show.
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Instead of watching whether they cut rates or not, it’s more interesting to see how they pretend to be united on camera, 😏
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A 5:3 split has already happened; is it time to start considering rate hike expectations next? Maybe the market has misunderstood this round.
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A “calm” key meeting week at year-end? No way, with such obvious internal division, the news will break sooner or later.
They're so calm even though there's internal chaos.
Three votes against—this is turning into a farce.
FOMC is going to have a pretty ugly split this time.
Feels like even if they cut rates, it won't matter—the market will keep fluctuating.
Let's see if the press conference can stop the bleeding.
Five opposed and three in favor—FOMC hasn't been this divided since 2019. Powell is probably going to be "grilled" repeatedly this time.
Whether or not they cut rates isn't the main issue anymore. The key is what these people are actually thinking; only then can we predict what's coming next in the market.
Better not cut rates just yet. Let’s see how Powell manages to spin this situation.
An 84% probability? Feels like the market is oversimplifying things. With this kind of internal split, there’s definitely something fishy.
Staying up until 3 a.m. to watch and see how Powell sets the tone. That’ll decide whether we make or lose money this year.
With this level of division, I don’t think a simple 25bp rate cut is going to solve things.