Bitcoin surges 10% to $93,000—beware of a false breakout!!!

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are showing signs of recovery, but the market remains cautious ahead of the release of US inflation data, with most investors waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week.

Bitcoin rebounded after dropping to $92,500 in early trading and stabilized around $93,000. However, its two-day cumulative 10% gain has stalled near the resistance level of approximately $93,400 (close to the 2025 opening price). Bitcoin rose 5% on Tuesday, marking its fifth-best single-day performance this year. However, market analysts question whether this rally signals a longer-term breakout, as concerns over macroeconomic uncertainty persist—including the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision—which keeps market sentiment unstable. The market is also watching to see if Bitcoin can hold steady within the $90,000 to $91,000 support range.

Although the market appears calm on the surface, traders are waiting for the next catalyst. The Federal Reserve will hold its meeting from December 9 to 10, with the rate decision scheduled for the afternoon of December 10. Another key labor market update will follow after the meeting, and these data points will greatly influence short-term market sentiment. Meanwhile, media reports suggest that Strategy is preparing for a Bitcoin downturn; the Bitcoin reserve company is undergoing a structural shift from aggressive accumulation to balance sheet protection, including setting up separate USD reserves and acknowledging in its statements that it may hedge or even sell under stressful conditions in the future. Nonetheless, the probability of Bitcoin sales in Q1 2026 remains very low, while expectations for routine small-scale purchases remain strong. Market traders share this view, with a high probability of fixed-ratio purchases, although purchase volumes are shrinking. This means the Bitcoin reserve company is no longer absorbing significant supply on the market, suggesting that the supply landscape in the crypto market could change in 2026.

Whether Bitcoin can resume its upward trend will depend on whether new sources of demand can replace the previous rally driven by corporate accumulation.