Can AppLovin and Shopify Actually Beat Palantir's $369B Valuation by 2028?

Question

Palantir hit a $369 billion market cap after soaring 150% last year. Impressive? Sure. But here’s the thing—two AI-powered companies might dwarf that number in just 36 months.

The Math Behind the Thesis

AppLovin ($176B today) needs a 110% bump to hit $370B. That’s roughly 28% annually—aggressive but not impossible given its 53% consensus earnings growth.

Shopify ($192B today) needs 93% upside to cross that threshold. At 24% annual returns, it’s more conservative, though the stock trades at a pricier 108x earnings versus AppLovin’s 66x.

Why AppLovin Could Pull It Off

The adtech platform isn’t just throwing around buzzwords. Its Axon 2.0 recommendation engine—a machine learning beast—has quadrupled ad spend since mid-2023. Morgan Stanley calls it “best-in-class.”

But here’s what’s really interesting: AppLovin just launched a self-service e-commerce ad dashboard that hit a $1B revenue run rate within months. CEO Adam Foroughi says rolling this out globally could unlock “a massive opportunity.” Translation: explosive TAM expansion.

If earnings grow 53% annually as expected, AppLovin could hit $370B while actually trading at a cheaper valuation (39x vs. current 66x). That’s the kind of setup where Wall Street gets excited.

Shopify’s AI Traction (But Expensive Entry)

Shopify’s using AI in three ways:

Agentic AI for conversational shopping
Workflow automation for merchants
Developer productivity tools internally

It’s the most popular e-commerce platform (per G2) and recognized as a wholesale commerce leader. Shopify also has a track record of beating earnings estimates.

But at 108x earnings, there’s less margin for error. It needs 32% annual earnings growth and flawless execution on enterprise upsell, international expansion, and wholesale market share gains.

The Pick

AppLovin looks like the better bet—lower valuation, higher growth rate, clearer near-term catalyst with self-service rollout. Shopify has the moat and execution track record, but needs everything to break right.

Neither is a gimme. But if you’re hunting for the next mega-cap AI story? These two are worth watching.