Is the BTC Spot ETF bleeding stopped? $23.8 billion net inflow reversed the downturn.

Question

After 6 days of continuous bleeding and a total outflow of 2.1 billion dollars, the Bitcoin Spot ETF finally rebounded yesterday.

According to on-chain data, on November 21, the total net inflow for all issuers was $238 million - while it may not seem like much, it is significant. This is because just the day before, there was a massive redemption of $903 million (the second largest in history), and this rebound almost swallowed half of the outflow from earlier that day.

Who is bottom fishing?

Fidelity's FBTC is far ahead, with a single-day inflow of $108 million, accounting for nearly half of the total inflow. This indicates that institutions still prefer low-fee products in a volatile market.

Following closely is the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, with an inflow of $84.93 million. The 0.15% fee rate compared to the high fees of GBTC has attracted many cost-sensitive retail investors to flee. This fund has accumulated a total inflow of $2.15 billion, with AUM of approximately $3.2 billion.

Ironically, the authentic GBTC is still bleeding, with about 45 million dollars redeemed yesterday. However, with an asset scale of over 20 billion, GBTC remains the world's largest Bitcoin ETF.

Other products such as BlackRock's IBIT and ARK's ARKB have also seen slight inflows ranging from millions to tens of millions.

Market Signals

The total assets of the BTC Spot ETF have stabilized at 110.1 billion USD (having dropped 15 billion in early November). The entire market holds over 1.05 million BTC, close to half of the total Bitcoin supply.

Daily trading volume of $4.5 billion, up more than 25% month-on-month.

Interestingly, the huge red bar on November 20 followed by the green bar on the 21st often indicates a bottom in history. Institutional buying is usually strongly correlated with price rebounds, especially during the oversold phase.

Currently, the BTC trading price is 84,521, below the weekly high of 90K, while on-chain data shows that the correlation between price and ETF flow exceeds 80%.

Long-term Perspective

Although the single-day rebound looks good, November will still become the worst month for the BTC Spot ETF since its launch in January 2024.

Since the beginning of the year, ETF net inflows have exceeded 57 billion USD, but there has been significant volatility recently, mainly due to institutions closing leveraged positions.

The dominant position of the BTC Spot ETF is unquestionable - its asset size is 5 times that of the Ethereum ETF and nearly 10 times that of emerging varieties such as Solana and XRP.

Overall: This wave of rebound may signify a turning point in sentiment for the ETF market. With assets stabilizing above 11 billion and institutions refocusing on low-cost products, several weeks of sustained selling may be nearing its end.