#美国非农就业数据表现优于预期 The market data has been quite interesting in the last few days; let's break it down and look at some key signals.

First, let's look at the price. Bitcoin is currently stable around 87400, having touched a high of 88500 today before retracing to 86000, which is a typical narrow-range fluctuation. On the technical side, the daily EMA is clearly trending down, but the MACD trading volume is contracting, and there are signs of the DIF and DEA turning upward—this kind of divergence often indicates a trend reversal. The four-hour level is more intuitive: at the 87000 position, the EMA is starting to converge, with the Bollinger Bands providing a reference range of 84500 support and 88870 resistance, while the midline at 86660 is essentially the current pivot point.

There’s good news from the options side. The premium for the weekly put options has dropped from 11% last Friday to 4.5%, and the market's panic sentiment is quickly dissipating. The implied volatility has also fallen back to April levels, and the 14-day RSI has dropped to 32, which is very close to the oversold zone—many people are starting to sense the smell of a short-term bottom.

The flow of funds has become quite complex. In November, global crypto ETP outflows exceeded $6 billion, marking the largest withdrawal since 2018. The total redemptions of Bitcoin and Ethereum products in the U.S. market reached $3.7 billion, but if you calculate carefully, this only accounts for about 3% of their total scale of $110 billion. Moreover, the short positions in BlackRock's Bitcoin fund have noticeably decreased—institutions are not in a panic, while retail investors are the ones taking losses.

Lastly, let's talk about the macro situation. The market generally believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is around 80%, but there is still internal debate within the Federal Reserve about whether to continue easing. Goldman Sachs' risk preference index has dropped to zero, indicating that high-volatility assets like $BTC will still have to bear pressure in the short term. The atmosphere of caution is strong.