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The panic index has dropped to 15 again. Although it's slightly better than the previous single-digit wave, it is still stuck firmly in the "extreme fear" quagmire (range of 0-24). This is the worst emotional performance since February of this year.
How bad is the market? $1.2 trillion has directly evaporated. Bitcoin can't even hold $90,000, plummeting over 28% from its yearly high; Ethereum has broken the $3,000 support level, and altcoins? Don't even mention it, they are all flatlining.
Why is it collapsing like this? Three knives stabbing together: the first knife, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have crashed, with the probability falling below 50%, and the money in risk assets has been drained; the second knife, Bitcoin ETFs have transformed from a bull market engine into a siphon, with a net outflow of over $2.5 billion in a month, and BlackRock's products losing $500 million in a single day; the third knife, whales and long-term holders are collectively retreating, dumping 800,000 BTC, which has completely shattered retail investors' mentality.
Looking back at history: The last time the index fell below 20, Bitcoin plummeted 25% that month; now, the number 15 is already close to the levels during the pandemic crash in 2020, but the coin price is still high, and the level of panic far exceeds that year. On-chain data is very divided – retail investors are cutting losses, ETFs are bleeding, but those whales holding over 10,000 BTC are quietly increasing their holdings.
Is this a bottom signal? Or the beginning of a downward plunge? Historical data shows that 180 days after extreme panic, Bitcoin usually has a significant positive return. But don't forget that after the FTX crash in 2022, it took over 90 days to recover from the bottom.
Are you brave enough to rush in at the freezing point, or will you choose to watch from the sidelines? #香港虚拟资产稳定币监管框架 $BTC $XRP
Wait, BlackRock's one-day outflow is 500 million, is this to lower the cost?
You think a fear index of 15 can scare me away? I see this as the final whipsaw act.
It's happened so many times in history, how can there still be people trapped? How are those who jumped in doing now...
How come those large investors holding more than 10,000 coins are so calm? I need to think this through.
It's really about who can endure, FTX took over 90 days to grind through, this time it’s probably the same.
I choose to watch from the sidelines and let the bullets fly a bit longer.
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When panic hits 15, isn't it time to buy the dip? Or are we really going to break 10 this time?
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Wait, BlackRock ran 500 million in a day? Are they giving us a reverse indicator?
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That bottom in 2022 took 90 days to grind, do you still dare to go all in, bro?
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1.2 trillion evaporated, but whales are still increasing their holdings by 800,000 BTC, whose face is this data slapping?
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Is history about to repeat itself? Extreme panic followed by a rebound in 180 days, provided we survive until then.
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This time is different; coin prices are still stuck at high levels, much scarier than the pandemic dip.
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The Fed's interest rate cut expectations are not yet stabilized, who dares to catch this falling knife?
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Retail investors are cutting losses, institutions are bleeding, whales are hoarding coins, it's a typical night before the plummet.
Is it true or false? Is this theory of historical repetition? How are the people who believed it last time doing now?
Wait a minute, 800,000 BTC being dumped. Where did this data come from?
BlackRock ran away with 500 million in a single day. Are you sure they are not accumulating?
Whether to buy the dip or catch a falling knife, I choose to continue watching the show. Anyway, my account has long been lying flat.
The fear index is at 15. It sounds very desperate, but why do I feel like it has only just begun?
I won't touch it until the falling knife stops.
That wave from FTX taught me that bottom grinding could last for a year.