November 25 | ETH Trend Analysis

Core Points

Current Price: $2,926.10 (as of November 25, 10:24) Ethereum has stabilized after a 24-hour fluctuation, rising 1.90% from the previous day, rebounding from an early low of $2,763.70 to the current level. The price has recovered some ground driven by improved technical indicators and market sentiment.

Short-term Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The technical indicators show that the 4-hour MACD histogram has strongly turned positive (+26.68), and the RSI is in the neutral zone (55.6), indicating that short-term momentum is beginning to recover. It is expected that there will be consolidation in the range of $2,888 to $2,945 in the next 24 hours, and if the resistance level of $2,920 is broken, it is likely to test the $3,000 level.

Key Support:

• $2,888 (1 hour EMA26, medium intensity)
• $2,754 (1-hour Bollinger lower band, strong support)
• $2,634 (daily Bollinger lower band, strong support)

Key Resistance:

• $2,920 (1 Hour EMA12, Moderate Intensity)
• $2,945 (4-hour Bollinger upper band, strong resistance)
• $3,148 (Daily Bollinger Midline/SMA50, Strong Resistance)

Market Data Analysis

Interpretation of Technical Indicators

Long and Short Power Comparison

• 1-hour level: Neutral, RSI 57.5, price is between key moving averages.
• 4-hour level: Bullish bias, MACD histogram strongly turning positive, price has re-established above EMA12/26.
• Daily Level: Bearish, RSI at 36.5 indicates oversold conditions, but ADX at 47.4 shows that the trend may reverse.

options market signal

The total open interest for options reached $11.4 billion, with a 24-hour increase of 1.11%. The maximum pain point is at $2,850, which is below the current price, suggesting possible downward pressure before expiration.

Funding Rate Analysis

The funding rates of major exchanges are all positive (Binance 0.0069%, Bybit 0.0039%), indicating that bulls have a slight advantage, but excessive optimism may limit the potential for significant upward movement.

Market Sentiment and Catalysts

positive factors

• Technical Repair: Rebound from the oversold area, momentum strengthens at the 4-hour level.
• Upgrade Expectations: The Fusako upgrade will be activated on December 3rd, and the market anticipates efficiency improvements.
• Buy on Dips: Social media is generally optimistic, encouraging a strong sentiment for buying on declines.

Risk Warning

• Macroeconomic Pressure: The overall crypto market fell by 30% in November, with ETH dropping by 40%.
• ETF Outflow: Last week, there was a net outflow of $1.9-3.7 billion from ETFs, with institutional funds continuing to withdraw.
• Technical Suppression: The daily level is still in a downward trend, with all major moving averages forming resistance.

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Long Position Range: Around $2,880-$2,900, target $3,000 Stop-loss level: Break below $2,850 Shorting Range: Around $2,940-$2,960, target $2,800 Risk Control: Strictly implement stop-loss and control the position to not exceed 30%.

In the short term, ETH is expected to fluctuate upward driven by technical corrections and upgrade expectations, but it is necessary to be cautious of changes in the macro environment and the risk of large capital outflows. It is recommended to focus on range trading and wait for clear breakout signals before increasing positions.