BTC Large-Scale Trend Expectations and Plans

Currently, BTC is undergoing a daily-level correction, with an internal 4-hour, 3-leg adjustment structure. Since the third leg is quite strong and there is no obvious 30-minute divergence within it, I don't think the third leg is over yet. I am more inclined toward the red (30-minute level) direction. That is, first, there will be a 5-minute central oscillation rebound within this range to correct the oversold conditions, restoring the 4- to 6-hour indicators, and then making a new low to trigger a 4-hour rebound (green path).

At that point, the market will be filled with bullish voices, with bulls believing that BTC has already formed an absolute bottom and will start bottom-fishing again. After a few days of sentiment easing and the 4-hour rebound structure being completed, I expect another sharp drop to create a new 4-hour fifth-leg low, forming a complete daily five-leg trend (blue arrow), forcing the bulls to surrender completely and switch to short positions.

After this bear trap, the market will start the real daily-level rebound. Whether this daily rise can break new highs will be the key to determining the future bull or bear market. So, before a true bottom forms, I believe there will be at least 1-2 more new lows.

Of course, the market is unpredictable. The above is just my personal large-scale directional expectation based on years of experience trading BTC. The actual path will depend on the development of the smaller-scale structures. I’ll discuss more details in the livestream next week.
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