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Stop buying the dip! The global money supply is tightening, don't make a move before the storm passes!
Now listen to my advice: stop buying the dip immediately!
Let me tell you something really scary— the "invisible foundation" that has supported the global financial markets for decades is starting to loosen.
In the past 30 years, whether it's U.S. Treasury bonds, tech stocks, or Bitcoin, why have they all been able to rise continuously? The core reason is simple: Japan's "free money" is providing support.
Let me briefly explain "carry trade": financial institutions borrow yen at almost zero cost and use that money to buy high-yield assets globally (such as Bitcoin and US stocks). Trillions of dollars in "cheap funds" have propped up the bull market for so many years.
But this month, the 30-year rule has completely changed! The yield on Japanese long-term government bonds has skyrocketed, reaching a new high in decades:
• The 20-year treasury yield is quickly approaching 2.8%;
• The 40-year term is approaching 3.7%.
This is not a small interest rate hike; it's like a spring that has been compressed for many years suddenly snapping back, with tremendous force!
What does this mean? To put it simply:
1. Borrowing money has become expensive: it used to be almost free to borrow yen, but now the costs have skyrocketed, making it even unprofitable.
2. Exchange rate risk exploded: Once the yen fluctuates significantly, institutions have to rush to close positions, otherwise the margin will not be enough and they will incur heavy losses;
3. Trillions of capital are about to "withdraw": The money borrowed in yen to invest globally over the years is now being crazily pulled back to Japan, this is not a guess, it is really happening!
In the past, when Japan released water, the global market could all benefit; now Japan is "turning off the tap" and is even pulling water back, causing the global money supply to decrease.
Compared to the level of global financial fluctuations, the rise and fall of the crypto market in recent days is nothing at all. This is no longer just a matter of bull market or bear market; rather, the global "money tide" is receding.
Everyone used to think that Japan would maintain low interest rates indefinitely, but now it has really moved - once it moves, the global market has to shake!
Finally, to conclude:
Before the situation becomes clear, preserving principal is more important than anything else. Stop thinking about buying the dip, hold on to cash, and wait until this storm passes!
#美国结束政府停摆 #当前行情抄底还是观望?