#Strategy扩大比特币持仓 I checked the on-chain data yesterday and found that a whale address has absorbed over 1000 coins. The strange thing is: large investors are continuously buying, but the price is falling apart.

At first, I judged that this continuous buying looked more like a washout rather than a real fall. Now it seems—I was too simple. Although whales are indeed buying, the absorption pace is very gentle, and there are no signs of sudden violent buying. It's like boiling a frog in warm water; the main players can either crush the price while accumulating chips or shake off floating chips through wide fluctuations. Both modes are possible. I previously naively thought that 'continuous absorption = bottom signal', but this slow and sluggish buying method is more in line with the characteristics of the main players suppressing prices to accumulate. Unless one day I see a sudden surge in holdings at whale addresses, that might indicate a larger market trend is coming.

Another point of doubt: The U.S. formally signed the funding bill the day before yesterday, ending the longest shutdown in history at 43 days. Logically, with the government back in operation, funds should gradually return to the market. However, Bitcoin has continuously broken through key support levels, and it doesn't seem to be stopping the bleeding. I tend to believe that this violent drop might be the last move of the main investors. I don't dare to expect a strong surge later, but the probability of a rebound to around 110,000 is quite high.

Lastly, a word: the market fear index has been off the charts for several days in a row, and this extreme state won't last long. Let's wait for the final fall.