Today the market is quite calm. After all, Bitcoin hasn't surged or plummeted significantly. Sometimes, the absence of news can be good news. Considering the recent sharp drops on October 11 and yesterday, we've now seen a solid bottoming process. Historically, such major declines typically take over a month to recover from (like the big drop from February to April). But we also know that currently, the market is mainly waiting for news on the U.S. government reopening. Once the two parties reach an agreement, I believe the market will rebound quickly. Right now is a good time to buy on dips.

Besides that, we should also pay attention to today’s Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. However, since the tariff topic has been overhyped and has limited market impact, it hasn't attracted widespread attention.

We all know that during Trump’s term, the three branches of government were heavily intertwined, and the Supreme Court held a favorable position. So, this ruling was expected to be straightforward. But this time, even conservative justices are beginning to question whether the president can indefinitely extend trade powers under the guise of an "emergency."

The conservative justices aren’t opposing tariffs per se; they’re trying to restore balance within the already unbalanced separation of powers. If the president can freely declare a "state of emergency" to bypass Congress for tariffs, it essentially transfers the core fiscal authority of Congress to the executive branch.

Allowing Trump to do this could set a precedent for the next president (a Democrat) to declare a "climate emergency" and impose taxes on all high-emission countries. Such a chain reaction would be unthinkable within the traditional U.S. constitutional framework.

For Trump, tariffs are a matter of "life and death." Given the current U.S. fiscal situation, tariff revenue has become a key pillar of government income. Especially with a government shutdown and record-high deficits, refunding tariffs would be an unsustainable risk for the U.S. Treasury.

So, the current scenario is: if Trump loses the case → tariff risk premium decreases → U.S. Treasury yields fall → the dollar might weaken short-term → markets could panic in the short run → but in the medium to long term, this could benefit risk assets like U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.

Regardless of the court’s decision, it’s unlikely to change the ultimate outcome regarding tariffs, as Trump will probably find another administrative way to bypass any ruling.

After considering the Supreme Court’s review, it’s likely they’ll issue a “stay of execution” type ruling—finding Trump abused the IEEPA but delaying its enforcement—thus maintaining the authority of the legal system without immediately halting tariffs and risking a black swan event.